Looks like a rough morning ahead
To be completely honest, I’m still trying to get my head right and shake off the lingering psychological effects of yesterday’s big loss (79 pips). Combine that with a market which has taken wild swings overnight, leaving virtually everything in ranges, and it’s looking to me like it might be a rough morning.
We have the first of two major CAD red news events coming up at 7:30 (in 4 minutes), so we’ll see what happens.
I saw no discernible move in the CAD 5 minutes into the candle – at least not enough of a move to warrant the risk of taking a news trade in a ranging market. So I’m standing aside. for the moment.
I’ve gone ahead and put pending orders for RBO’s in for USDCAD and CADJPY in case they decide to move. I was considering putting in orders on the other ranges (most pairs), but decided to stand aside until NYC open. I’m thinking I will stay clear of the GBP pairs this morning – they seem to have a wide range of volatility, supposedly owing to the status of Brexit negotiations, according to news reports. Regardless, the charts look very choppy to me.
The GBP pairs suddenly shot WAY up (like 100+ pips) on Brexit news. I decided to take a very fool hardy risk and trade against it as it started to pull back from the top of the spike, but the volatility got me and it continued up.
But both EUR pairs hit RBO’s. I kept moving my TP up with a trailing stop equal to one and a half times the initial stop. Ended up taking EURUSD for +17.2 and the EURJPY for +25.8. I’ve gotten back into them both on YL pullbacks, but the EURJPY stopped out for <10.0>.
I took range break out trades on CADJPY and USDCAD. The USDCAD close back inside and my EA took it off for <3.5>. I pulled the protective stop up tight on the CADJPY in advance of the CAD bank rate news, and took it for +0.7. I took another trade on CADJPY during the news, but got stopped out in fairly short order for <12.0>.
I got in the GBPUSD on a pullback. I’m seeing news chatter that we could see a short-covering rally with the Brexit news, so I’m going to try to hang on to it, but the stops are set. At the moment (9:20 CDT) it’s moving sideways around the entry point.
I also took an RBO on USDJPY which ended up getting stopped out for <10.1>. And my YL trade on EURUSD just took a full stop for <8.0>. So I’m currently holding GBPUSD long, and I’m down <10.1> net.
The GBPUSD stopped out after an hour for <10.0>. Just before that happened, I took the GBPJPY on a deeper pullback and exhaustion, and then it also stopped out. So now I’m flat the market, and down <32.1>. Thinking of calling it for today. Going the wrong way.
But I’m not done yet. Trying to get a re-entry on GBPUSD and GBPJPY. Missed it on GBPUSD by hesitating, but it still might hit.
Be careful what you wish for! 82 pip downward spike on the GBPUSD did take in my pending order, and, of course, immediately stopped it out. <10.2>. It could have been worse – with that fast a spike, the slippage could have been a lot worse.
So I’m done for day with net <42.3>.
I really need to examine my decision making. That’s two days in a row I could have walked away with a significant gain, and kept going and turned it into a loss. Now down <122.2> for the week-to-date.