Back in the saddle
I’m back from vacation last week with no internet (and hence no trading!). I traded on Monday (April 23) in somewhat of lackluster session that ended down <14.6> pips.
That puts me starting this morning down <67.9> for the month. The goal is to end the month at BE or better (although I still have next Monday to pull it out).
So far, I’m seeing a lot of USD strength and a range in the Yen pairs. But that’s based on overnight movement – that often has a tendency to evaporate in the last couple hours before the NY open.
Just past 7:00 AM (CDT), entered my first trade of the day, a short on GBPUSD on a pullback to the YL.
At 7:16, USDCAD also hit on a pullback, which has now turned back higher. GBPUSD has pulled back into negative territory after being up 4 pips, but it’s still hanging in there.
Entered AUDUSD and EURUSD short on YL pullbacks.
At 7:30 CDT, holding GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUDUSD, and EURUSD. Looking (hoping?) for continued USD strength.
Getting the USD strength, then letting it get away, then it comes back, and then goes away again. For a few moments, I was up over 30 pips across the 4 pairs, then slipped to +10, then went back up to +20, and currently (8:00 CDT) negative by about <5>
The USDCAD, which had been leading the way out of my hole, suddenly turned down and stopped out for <10.0>. Still holding GBPUSD, AUDUSD, and EURUSD.
At the NYC open, I’m hanging right around BE (not counting the already booked stop). Let’s see if the USD strength continues after the open.
Just took a long on USDJPY on breaking the previous range. See if that follows through.
Well, it didn’t. USDJPY pulled back and stopped out, for <10.0>, and EURUSD followed shortly thereafter, stopping out for <8.0> So, suddenly, I’m down <28>, and I decided to punch out of the other USD pairs – GBPUSD for <8.6>, and AUDUSD for <2.6>. Currently flat and down <39.2>, and regrouping.
And right at that point, the pending order on AUDJPY range break hit. It was actually within the 2-minute rule, but by the time I realized it, it was closing the candle outside the range, so I let it ride. That price action appears to be driven by the Yen, though, which is rebounding, so it may get taken out as well. But, as usual, #weneverknow!
The AUDJPY pulled back up inside the range, and was actually getting close to the stop, but then came back down, and closed the candle slightly outside the range, so we’re still alive. A little bit of bouncing around in the yens. EURJPY and GBPJPY are flirting with the green zone for triggering the pending order.
The AUDJPY closed the next candle inside the range, and I punched out for <5.0>. Now down <44.2> and currently flat. I think I will stand aside until the crude oil news in 12 minutes.
I took a long on CADJPY 3 1/2 minutes into the news candle because it looked like it was finally establishing a direction. Let’s see if there is any follow through. I’ve seen that happen sometimes – the news doesn’t look like it’s moving, then all of a sudden it starts taking off. But, #weneverknow. I’ll hold it until the end of the candle, then make a decision.
It never went anywhere, and closed the candle very near where I entered it. I punched out for <3.1>. Now flat and down <47.3>. Time to reassess and start over.
I now have pending orders for either breakout trades or re-entries on every pair, and a pending order on a YL in the NZDUSD just hit.
I have a pending order on GBPUSD short for a Re-entry at the ’50 level, and price is moving pretty strongly towards it. GBPJPY is also moving up. I’m thinking it might be late in the session to take that trade. But when I overthink instead of following the criteria, I often miss out on big moves. Decisions, decisions. I’m taking it off – GBP appears to be moving up and USD is holding (USDJPY) or moving down (USDCAD).
And the GBPJPY pending on the range break hit as I was typing. It went up quickly about 7 pips, then pulled back to near BE. But it did stay outside the range, so we’re still alive for the time being.
And still outside the line at 10:45, but still not going anywhere. Getting really late to be trying to recover.
On the next candle (closing at 11:00), GBPJPY closed well inside the range, and I punched out for <7.0>. I’m still holding NZDUSD, but it’s going nowhere. I’ll look to exit that shortly and take my losses. Nothing appears to be moving this late in the session.
I’ve taken off all my pending orders, and pulled up the take profit on NZDUSD to the next level (’50), which would give me a 12.9 pip profit if it hits. Not enough to make a big difference either way – getting it won’t even get me to break even for the day, let alone make up any of the month’s loss, and taking a stop won’t add that much to my loss. I’m currently down <54.5>. So I’m going to let that trade ride while I go take care of some other things, and I’ll come back and check on it in a bit.
I picked up a range break out trade on CADJPY that lasted 4 candles before closing on the line, and I punched out of it for <3.1>. And I finally got tired of messing with NZDUSD and punched out of it for +0.9.
Summary for the day: 9 trades, 8 losses for <54.3>, with 1 (very small) win of +0.9 pips. Net <53.4> (-2.62%). <68.0> for the week, and <121.3> for the month.