Started off the morning with GBP rate news at 6:00 AM. After waiting for the wild swings and 20 pip spreads to die down, I took a short on the GBPJPY and watched it run down. I had an urge to jump out at about +20 pips, but I held on a while longer, and punched out with +32.4. It’s a good thing, because a range breakout on the USDJPY hit a few minutes later, and then pulled back into the range and stopped me out for <10.1>. So I’m starting the day out +22 – which is interested because that turns out to be the average of my winning trading days for the last 3 months.

Kim and several other traders had a discussion on Twitter yesterday that was triggered by my results of being up +56 early, and then losing virtually all of it. Kim advised me to look at my statistics, with the questions of “what’s your average winning day?” and “How many days have you had over 50 pips?” The answers, over the period of Feb 1 to the present were 22 pips avg, and 2 days over 50. So it sort of puts things in perspective – i.e., when you get a win that is head and shoulders above what you’ve been experiencing, take it and walk away.

Right now, I’m set up to trade the USD CPI news at 7:30. Most everything has settled back into a range, so I’ll be hesitant to take any trades (other than the news) until some moves start developing.

Took EURUSD long on the news. It was up +11 or so, but pulled back to break even. Now it’s headed back up. Moved stop up to BE when price went through +16 (2:1 R:r). Trail stop has pulled up to lock in a 1:1, and moved my TP up ’50 (which would be a gain of about +50, since I got in at 1.19002. And we haven’t even closed the news candle yet. Patience!

And the EURUSD pulled back to hit my PS for +8.2. Now up +30.5.

It’s going to take a few candles to separate out the spillover effects of the news from the inherent market pattern, so I’m going to stand aside for a while and see what develops. And, if I end up not taking anymore trades, I’m satisfied with +28.

As we head towards the NYC open, I took a short on USDJPY on a pullback, and, just now, a short on USDCAD, also on a pullback.

USDJPY stopped out for <10.1> after not quite half an hour. That’s two losses on that pair this morning – done with it. And now at +20.4, and still holding USDCAD, which has moved back and forth between +7 and -7. And now it has stopped out too, for <10.0>. Still up +10.4, but need to reassess.

Took a long on AUDJPY on a pullback. Everything’s pulling back, and it’s hard to tell whether it’s a consolidation before continuing, or the start of a bigger pullback. Being very cautious, mindful that a stop on this will put me into negative territory for the day.

GBPUSD just broke the range to the short side with 11 minutes left in the candle. Dang — it moved down by 11, but then pulled back and closed just inside the previous range line, so I punched out for <1.9>. So I’m now up +8.5. But AUDJPY just stopped out for <12.0>, so I’m now down <3.5>.

So it’s basically like starting the session, except an hour late, and making up my mind what to do with data in front of me. Except it’s discouraging to have had 2 big wins, then a string of losses that took it all back. This seems to be a recurring theme.

It looks like, with the exception of the GBP, everything that was up is either pulling back close to the range, or has actually gone back inside the range. And we’ve had a huge run on both the GBPUSD (147) and the GBPJPY (181). It’s hard to get into them, and I need to be cautious about how much further the runs can be extended. Also need to be wary of the self-pressure to find some trade, any trade, to give me a chance to turn this around. It might be better just to take the loss and close up shop.

Okay, entered pendings on EURUSD and AUDUSD. The EURUSD hit, and I pulled the AUDUSD to reduce the risk of the pullbacks continuing across the board. And, that quick, the EURUSD stopped out for another <8.0>. Now down <11.5>.

Set a pending on GBPJPY for a pullback, and there was a spike that triggered it and stopped it out in the same second, for <11.7>. It was so fast that the NewTradeIndicator never picked it up (happened in the same second!). Same thing with the GBPUSD, stopped for <9.7>.

And that will do it for me for today.

10 trades, 2 wins (both on news trades) for +40.6, and 8 losses for <73.7>. Net <33.1> (-1.53%). <85.6> for the week, and <97.5> for the month.

See you next week.