Starting another trading day.
Just a quick review of the week, since I procrastinated and didn’t get any posts done for Monday or Tuesday. Monday there were some good overnight moves spurred on by news of progress on Brexit. I tried to trade some of them, but by the time I got the market, they had all collapsed into sideways action. I ended up taking 5 trades with 5 full stops, for a net of <52.3>. Yesterday (Tuesday, 3/20) was the opposite, both in set up and results. Most everything was in ranges during my trade planning, but as the morning wore on I was able to take a few range breakout trades and some pullback set ups. While none of them took off and ran, I was able to capture small (mostly single digit) gains on 7 out of 7 trades, for a combined net of +44.6 pips. So I’m down<7.7> for the week headed into this morning.
Pre-session (8:00 AM CDT) trade planning is mixed. USD showing some weakness, with EURUSD and GBPUSD up (though the latter on the strength of overnight news), with USDJPY and USDCAD down. Yen seems to be showing some strength. EURJPY is rangebound while the EURUSD is up, and likewise for the GBPJPY. AUDJPY is down strongly, as is USDJPY (as mentioned). CADJPY has gone rail-to-rail overnight, and is now looking to break out of the high end of the range.
With Oil inventory news at 9:30 (although that has been pretty much a dud lately), and FOMC at 1:00 PM, I want to try to keep my powder dry and make sure I’m still in the market for those. Also AUD employment news this evening. With no news this morning, I’ll be holding off till NY open, and then proceeding cautiously.
Started the morning taking a trade on AUDJPY on a pullback, getting close to yesterday’s low. Well, after being up by 5 pips, it turned around on me and stopped out for <12.0>
Just had several ranges break, probably on aftermath of oil news. CADJPY broke long, USDCAD broke short, and AUDUSD broke long.
USDCAD just stopped out for <10.1>. That puts me down <35>, and holding GBPUSD long (currently down<6>), CADJPY long (currently +2.4), and AUDUSD long (currently down <3.3>). Everything is pretty much sideways right now.
Examining my emotions, I see that, in this environment of no follow-thru and waiting for FOMC, I’m much more driven by fear of loss than anything else. I’ve got an urge to punch out for very small gains, or sometimes even for a small loss to keep from having to take a full stop.
Punched out of AUDUSD for <3.7> when the candle closed inside the range that it broke out of. Dems da rules!
Used my trail-stop-equal-to-distance-to-target protocol on CADJPY, and got +8.3 pips as it approached the next level (82.20), then pulled back. Now down <30> and holding GBPUSD (currently down <3.7>). Have been holding it for 5 candles.
And GBPUSD finally stopped out for <10.0> – after being up at right about break even a few minutes before! Bahhh. Currently flat and down <40.3>, and standing aside until FOMC. Give it one shot on FOMC.
Gave it one shot on FOMC: Took USDJPY long, and was stopped out for <10.3>. Net for the day <50.6>
Took entries on pullbacks on USDJPY (short), USDCAD (short), and EURUSD (long). All pretty much driven by some momentary recovery in USD strength. We’ll see what happens. I killed all my remaining pendings – I don’t want to take anymore trades until one of these hits.
USDCAD just stopped out for <10.1>. Now down <22.1>
Punched out of EURUSD for +3.2 I only got into that trade because I was slow in killing the pendings, and it was down most of the time I held it, sometimes flirting with the stop. So when it got up a few points, I wanted to lighten up. Now down <19> and holding USDJPY.
Oil inventories coming up. Took one risk on CADJPY long – wasn’t a real pronounced move, but it looked like it was up. Take the risk. Punched out with :15 to go on the candle for +4.1 because it wasn’t going to break the range. Actually, I would have taken +3, so when it got to 4, I was definitely out.
So, at 9:45 CDT, I’m down <15> and holding USDJPY, which, at the moment, is down another <7.8>.
Time to see what else is brewing.
USDJPY stopped out for <10.0>. Looks like I should have held on to that CADJPY – it just broke out it’s range to the upside, but I missed it. I do have a downside re-entry set for USDCAD at 1.2950. Not taking a re-entry on AUDJPY because the AUDUSD looks like it’s moving up pretty strongly within its range, and the other Yen crosses are mostly moving up.
CADJPY closed back inside the previous range, so I drew new range lines an set a pending on breaking them. Possible I may get something out of it yet.
Entered GBPUSD long on a pullback. Need to watch this one – with being down <25>, if this trade goes to full stop, I’ll be sidelined until FOMC.