When Will I Learn?
I had morning meetings Monday and yesterday that kept me from trading the NY session. I did take one early morning trade on Monday in the GBPJPY that I took for +3.7 pips, but then gave it back on an AUD new trade Monday evening. Ended the day <2.7>.
I elected to trade the London session yesterday. It was a bit rocky. I was down about <27> or so, but then some surges in the EUR and AUD brought me back to +15. Then I traded the USD red news at 7:30, and captured +20 on the EURUSD to end the day at +35.
This morning appears to be mostly range bound, with the exception of the EUR pairs, which are in clear moves to the short side. However, Draghi is speaking, which can often lead to volatility, so I want to stay away from EUR pairs for the time being. Awaiting the USD news at 7:30 CDT.
News (Housing starts/building permits) was mostly inline, and the initial reaction appeared to me be a dud, but it seemed to develop after about 5 minutes, and I entered short on USDJPY and USDCAD. USDCAD stopped out for <10.0>. USDJPY is still hanging on, but not going anywhere. If it doesn’t stop out, I’ll probably close it at the candle close. And I did so, for <5.9>. Starting the morning down <15.9>.
Set up pending orders for all pairs, either YL’s or range breaks. GBPUSD hit the range break short. GBPPY hit shortly there after. Both have had slight continuations and then pull backs. Both closed just outside the line at the end of the 7:45 candle, and so are still in play. But the GBPUSD stopped out before the end of the 8:00 candle for <10.4>. Now down <26.3>.
Meanwhile, USDJPY also broke lower. And a pending YL order hit on the EURUSD. But it’s shaping up to be a no-follow-thru morning. Both GBPJPY and USDJPY are currently back inside their ranges, with under 4:00 to go in the candle.
USDCAD also broke range just before the two minute warning, but closed the candle clearly back inside for <6.6>. And the USDJPY closed just barely inside for <3.2>. So I’m now down about <36>, and still holding GBPJPY and EURUSD.
Catching up. There were several range breakouts all at once: AUDUSD, NZDUSD, CADJPY, and AUDJPY. Both moved up nicely, and at one point, they were up a combined 25 or so pips. And then they all started pulling back. And when the AUDUSD and AUDJPY looked like they were going to go negative, I punched out of all of them – all for gains, but much smaller gains. AUDUSD and NZDUSD for +1.9 each, AUDJPY for +2.0, and CADJPY for +5.5. Combined +11. And then all of them resumed their climbs on the next candle. CADJPY is through the next level, AUDJPY is approaching the next level, and AUDUSD and NZDUSD are both up significantly from where I punched out of them. WHEN WILL I LEARN? Currently down <55.3> and flat. Looking for re-entries on those trades, but it’s not going to happen – they’re up too much and would have to pull back too far – by that time it would be a downward move.
Took news trades in CADJPY long and USDCAD short on the oil news. USDCAD stopped out for <10.0>. CADJPY is moving up fairly nicely. The USDCAD, after pulling back to JUST touch my stop, continued lower, and I took a re-entry trade at 1.2780. And that trade also stopped out. Currently down <75.4> and holding CADJPY. That will be my last trade.
CADJPY made one more attempt, got up about 4 pips, then pulled back and stopped out for <12.1> End result, down <87.5> (-3.72%) on the day.
15 trades, 4 (small) wins, 11 losses. The early exit on the RBO’s was the big game changer. I should have taken those for a combined +50 pips, instead of +11. And if I had done that, I might have avoided the <30>+ of loss on the oil news. COULDA, WOULDA, SHOULDA. Useless.
I told Kim, I think I’m going to put a big label up over the monitor that says “DON’T EVEN THINK ABOUT IT!”.